| 驱动未来产业成长的机理与组态路径：基于数字创新生态系统的视角 |
| Mechanisms and Confi gurational Pathways Driving the Growth of Future Industries: A Perspective Based on Digital Innovation Ecosystems |
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| 中文关键词:未来产业 数字创新生态系统 驱动机理 动态QCA |
| 英文关键词:future industries digital innovation ecosystem driving mechanisms dynamic QCA |
| 基金项目:湖南省自科基金项目（2025JJ50416）；国家社科基金项目（24FGLB033；22BJL121）；湘潭大学校级项目（2022BSQDF36，2021BSQDF37）。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 未来产业是科技创新和产业升级的引领者，数字创新时代，识别驱动未来产业孵化成长的因子及联动机制是关键。以“数字技术创新驱动、多元主体参与、基础设施承载、创新环境互动”为理论框架，分析了数字创新生态系统驱动未来产业孵化成长的机理。以此为基础，运用动态QCA 方法，从时空双维视角综合分析了2014–2023 年我国30 个省（区、市）面板数据，探索数字创新生态系统多维要素驱动未来产业成长的组态路径。研究发现：（1）企业主体创新是促进未来产业成长的核心；（2）驱动未来产业高水平成长的组态路径为“企业主体+ 基础设施+ 政策多维驱动”模式、“基础设施与政策协同”模式；（3）引致未来产业低水平成长的组态路径分别是“企业创新主体核心缺失”模式、“企业创新主体与政策双缺失”模式、“企业创新主体+ 政策+ 数字金融多重缺失”模式；（4）时间维度上，面对外部环境变化带来的冲击，各组态一致性在个别时间点出现小幅波动；（5）空间维度上，东部经济发达地区未来产业高水平成长案例较多，中部和西部部分地区也展现出了高水平成长能力，但东北及西部多数地区的未来产业有待培育，因此，有必要制定因地制宜的发展策略。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Future industries are the vanguard of technological innovation and industrial upgrading. Identifying the factors and synergistic mechanisms that drive the incubation and growth of future industries is crucial. Based on the theoretical framework of “digital technology innovation-driven, multi-agent participation, infrastructure support, and innovation environment interaction,” this study analyzes the mechanisms through which digital innovation ecosystems drive the incubation and growth of future industries. Building on this foundation, the study employs the dynamic QCA method to comprehensively analyze panel data from 30 provinces (regions and municipalities) in China between 2014 and 2023 through a spatio-temporal dual-dimensional perspective, exploring the confi gurational pathways by which multidimensional elements of digital innovation ecosystems drive the growth of future industries. The study fi ndings reveal that: ① Enterprise-led innovation is the core driver for the growth of future industries. ②The confi gurational pathways driving high-level growth of future industries are characterized by the “enterprise-led+ infrastructure + policy multidimensional-driven” model and the “infrastructure-policy synergy” model. ③ The configurational pathways leading to low-level growth of future industries are the “lack of core enterprise-led innovation entities” model, the “dual absence of enterprise-led innovation entities and policy support” model, and the “multiple deficiencies in enterprise-led innovation entities, policy support, and digital finance” model. ④ In the temporal dimension, infl uenced by shocks from external environmental factors, confi gurational consistency across different groups exhibits minor fluctuations at specific time points. ⑤ In the spatial dimension, economically developed eastern regions exhibit a higher concentration of high-level growth cases in future industries. While certain areas in central and western China also demonstrate high-level growth capabilities, most regions in the northeast and western parts still require industrial cultivation. This spatial disparity necessitates the formulation of tailored development strategies adapted to local conditions. |
| 吴艳,贺正楚,邹彬.驱动未来产业成长的机理与组态路径：基于数字创新生态系统的视角[J].科学决策,2025,(04):1~20 |
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